Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Playoff Preview: H'ville vs Maui

H'ville, Tn (AP) - The Hitmen head into October for the 4th straight time as Division Champs and the 3rd time with the #1 seed and home field advantage.  That's all nice and good, but the bottom line is that while those are nice bragging stats they mean absolutely NOTHING as H'ville has been eliminated in the 1st rd in each of the last 2 years.

Another bad sign is that for the 2nd straight year the Hitmen head into the playoffs with All-Star's RF John Prowse and LF Gregg Burkholder, but even more devastating is the lose of the hands down greatest SP in BSA Scott Hill

"Listen, every team has injuries this time of year," Owner/GM Travis Hays told reporters at today's press conference.  "Baffin is without Paradis and PittmanSac is without GibsonRegina is without Sharp and ClowDenver is without "Crayon"OKC is without FujitaWe all have injuries, you can't use it as an excuseInstead it's time for the another hero to be born."

This year the Hitmen will face off vs the Wild Card winners the Maui Tropics.  This is Zang's and the Tropics first playoff appearance in 4 years.  The Tropics are lead by MVP front runner Ricardo Vargas and Cy Young contender SP Donald Manning

During the regular season the Hitmen went 4-2 vs the Tropics not including the last series in which the Hays decided to rest all SP and 8 of the 9 regular starters in the lineup.  In the first series the Hitmen swept the Tropics in H'ville in May, but then lost 2 of 3 at Maui in July.  In those 2 losses Ellis and Haward both got roughed up.

Without Hill as the surefire ACE, Hays has decided to shake up his rotation and go with 3 lefties since Maui has struggled to the ton of 25-25 vs LHP.  Burgess will take the mound in game 1 as he hopes to continue his post All-Star dominace.  In 11 starts since All-Star game Burgess has made 11 starts, all 11 he has allowed 3 ER or less and in 9 of them he has allowed 2 ER or less.

Rotation
Game 1: Burgess
Game 2: Haward
Game 3: Bamber
Game 4: Ellis

The lineup vs RHP
1. Perez SS
- .311/.370/.469 slash line, 32 2B, 63 RBI vs RHP
2. Owens LF
- backup all year but still posted a .421 OBP vs RHP, needs to continue to get on base
3. Copriviza DH
-  7 HRs, 20 RBI's w/slash line of .309/.389/.596 in Sept.  swinging a hot bat
4. Alvarez 1B
- coming off a hot September (.292/.460/.542), this rook must deliver in the cleanup spot!
5. Padilla CF
- MUST stay healthy! more power vs RHP, back-2-back months with OBP over .400)
6. "Dirty" C
- 5 HRs, 6 2Bs and .316/.407/.582 in Sept, but is a far, far better hitter vs LHP
7. Hasegawa 3B
- stats are down from last yr, struggled & been disappointing in 2nd Half, still good numbers vs RHP
8. Balmforth RF
- Nice pickup at deadline, Great gap hitter looking to knock in some RBI's from bottom of order
9. Davis 2B
- actually statistically better vs LHP, but still very solid.  posted a .426 OBP in September

Lineup vs LHP
1. Rodriguez CF
- best def OF and best speed on team.  .350/.406/.521/.927 slash with 16 2Bs, 4 HRs vs LHP
2. Davis 2B
- .300/.412 vs LHP, needs to get on base for the big boys
3. Copriviza DH
- .305/.445/.570/1.015 vs LHP
4."Dirty" C
- Elite bat vs LHP, .339/.448/.678/1.126 vs LHP
5. Padilla RF
- moves to RF vs LHP, .299/.391 vs LHP but has more pop than he's shown
6. Hasewaga 3B
- actually had is best year vs LHP, .283/.352, but still really not a big factor
7. Balmforth LF
- avg dropped .76 pts vs LHP from NFF to Hen.  career .308 hitter vs LHP though
8. Alvarez 1B
- .270/.362/.427 vs LHP, if struggles in series could move Cop to 1B and start Def C Matos/Lopez
9. Bradley SS
- replaces Perez, .295/.340 compared to Perez's .226/.276 vs LHP.  no loss at def either



Keys to the series:
- SP!!!  My staff is statistically better, but historically that hasn't mattered in playoffs for me
- Have to limit the damage that Vargas does.  Can't let guys on in front of him
- MUST stop Oglethorpe from creating runs
- NO MORE INJURIES!!!  I'm tapped out on my depth, got no one else to call up to help

Notes:
LF Gregg Burkhold will be available for game 5, 6 and 7 if needed!

Playoff PR1

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