Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Why Games aren't won by the scouts

H'ville, Tn (AP) - We all get blown away by POT ratings and what our scouts say but in our brief 4 year history we continue to see things that just surprise, shock and just baffle us.
Pocatello had an amazing playoff run in 2010.  
Long Beach was a HUGE underdog vs my Hitmen in 2011 and pulled off the biggest upset to date by defeating me in 5 gms and went on to sweep KC in the WS.  
L.A. had the best team "on paper" by the scouts in 2012 and missed the playoffs while SF gutted his team and almost finished with 88 wins and 3rd place in 2012.  
Denver shocked us all by winning the Div and racking up 88 wins when everyone thought they were top 3 worst team in the league.

look back to last yrs MLB season.  Boston was suppose to win the WS last year and missed the playoffs by losing to the Orioles.  The Braves blew an 8.5gm lead on Sept. 6 with a 9-18 record in Sept.  My point is much like in MLB the unexpected happens in BSA!   We as GMs do our best to put the best team on the field but sometimes it just doesn't matter or the results just don't make sense.

On May 19th Goldy started a MR Jung-keun Yi with a 7.59 ERA, 38% GB% and only throws 2 pitches.  The result is a 1-HIT Complete Game shutout!!!  Since that start he is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA including getting his BSA best (tied) 2nd complete game shutout this last sim vs ORL.

A little breakdown of how this desperate MR spot start by Goldy has some how turned into frontline SP stats.

As a MR Yi straight up sucked.  He was most likely on his way down to AAA or traded before this magical run.  I would be willing to bet if Goldy signed Griff early on in the season Yi would have been demoted/traded before given a 2nd spot start (1st spot start was bad 6 ER in 6.1 IP).  
Here is how Yi's season has broken down.
 
MR    16.0 IP, 22 H, 12 ER, 16 Ks,   4 BB, 6.75 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 17 Gms
SP     37.0 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 21 Ks, 10 BB, 2.68 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 5 GS


Date Vs.ResultStartIP HRER BBKDec
06/12/2014 ORLWin, 1-0 X9.040 003Win
06/04/2014JER Win, 6-4X 6.244 156 Win
05/30/2014 @ KCYWin, 8-4 X6.054 435Win







05/19/2014 SCSWin, 5-0 X9.010 012Win







05/07/2014 NFFLoss, 3-6 X6.196 615Loss

I don't know what the magic is (a .224 BABIP really helps) nor do I think you can explain it.  Sometimes things like this happen.  Back in 2012 (I think) Madison's SP Clemente pitched an entire month without allowing a run.  I think it was 5 starts and 37.2 shutout innings.  Also in 2012 JJ's NFF won 24 in a row.  I think when the streak started he only had 20 wins!  Dustin's SP Corrigan just went 29 straight starts without taking a loss!!  Last year my team started out 60-15 through first 85 games and Joe's Regina team was at 58-17.  The great thing about baseball is everyday you get a chance to possibly witness something that has never been done before!

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